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PROJECTIONS: Physician supply and demand in 2025

Physician manpower projections by specialty for the year 2025 have been prepared by the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) using 2013 as a baseline year.  Here are the projections for 2025 giving the difference between supply and demand.  Note that a negative number means a projected shortage of physicians in that specialty.  Also note that these are FTEs – full time equivalents.  The largest shortages are projected in Family practice and General internal medicine, two key primary care specialties.

PHYSICIAN FTEs in 2025 (DIFFERENCE between supply and demand)

  • (-)   480  Allergy and immunology
  • (-)7,080  Cardiology
  • (-)1,810  Cardiothoracic surgery
  •         130  Colon/rectal surgery
  •      1,480  Critical care
  • (-)   430  Dermatology
  •         280  Endocrinology
  • (-)13,100 General and Family medicine
  • (-)12,960 General internal medicine
  • (-)2,970  General surgery
  • (-)1,630  Gastroenterology
  •         890  Geriatrics
  • (-)1,400  Hematology/Oncology
  •         210  Infectious disease
  •         140  Neonatal/Perinatal medicine
  •         130  Nephrology
  • (-)1,200  Neurological surgery
  • (-)4,930  Obstetrics
  • (-)6,180  Ophthalmology
  • (-)5,050  Orthopedic surgery
  • (-)1,620  Otolaryngology
  •      1,530  Pediatrics, general
  • (-)1,490  Plastic surgery
  • (-)6,080  Psychiatry, or (-)15,400 – two scenarios are given
  • (-)1,400  Pulmonology
  • (-)   280  Rheumatology
  • (-)3,630  Urology
  • (-)    520  Vascular surgery

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration. (2017). Health workforce projections. Click here for access to free full text: https://bhw.hrsa.gov/health-workforce-analysis/research/projections  Posted by AHA Resource Center (312) 422-2050, rc@aha.org

 

 

Top 10 physician specialties that will grow the most by 2025

Growth in Number of Physician Specialists: 2010 to 2025

Important note: This source EXCLUDES primary care physicians.  The analysis was for non-primary care specialists only.

  • 64 percent increase: Physical medicine
  • 55 percent increase: Pediatric subspecialites
  • 54 percent increase: Emergency medicine
  • 40 percent increase: Neurology
  • 35 percent increase: Dermatology
  • 34 percent increase: Neurological surgery
  • 32 percent increase: Radiation oncology
  • 26 percent increase: Vascular surgery
  • 25 percent increase: Radiology
  • 23 percent increase: Endocrinology, Hematology-oncology, Infectious disease, Otolaryngology (all tied at 23%)

Specialties expected to DECREASE in number of physicians by 2025 include:

  • (-) 37 percent: Occupational medicine
  • (-) 24 percent: Thoracic surgery
  • (-) 11 percent: Critical care medicine

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration, National Center for Health Workforce Analysis. (2014, July). Projecting the supply of non-primary care specialty and subspecialty clinicians: 2010-2025. Retrieved from: http://bhpr.hrsa.gov/healthworkforce/supplydemand/usworkforce/clinicalspecialties/clinicalspecialties.pdf  Posted by AHA Resource Center (312) 422-2050, rc@aha.org