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FORECASTING: Discharges to decline 2 percent in 10 years

Our analytics are projecting a 2 percent decline in discharges over the next decade.  As a result, clients are challenging their perceived acute care footprint needs and increasingly reallocating resources to a variety of outpatient and virtual settings.”  Sg2

I always like to grab consultants’ forecasts – about nearly anything! – and feature them here.  However, it is doubly interesting when the forecasts are about hospital inpatient utilization.  This little snippet from Sg2 is part of an interesting conglomeration of opinion about the hospital of the future.   Becker’s Hospital Review interviewed 45 leaders with an interesting mix of affiliations – providers, consultants, vendors – about disruptors affecting the hospital field.

Source: Dyrda, L. (2017, July 17). 45 hospital and healthcare executives outline the hospital of the future. Becker’s Hospital Review.  Click here: https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-management-administration/45-hospital-and-healthcare-executives-outline-the-hospital-of-the-future.html  Posted by AHA Resource Center (312) 422-2003, rc@aha.org

FORECAST: Ambulatory surgery volume in hospitals will increase 8 to 16 percent annually 2014 to 2021

One of my favorite things to find is a forecast!  It is rare that one can find a good educated guess about the future.  This study analyzed ambulatory surgery procedure time in hospital outpatient departments versus freestanding ambulatory surgery centers.

Here is the interesting forecast:

  • “Our estimates indicated that outpatient surgical volume in hospitals alone will increase by 8-16 percent annually between 2014 and 2021, compared to annual growth rates of 1-3 percent in the previous ten years.” (pp. 767-768).

Source: Munnich, E.L., and Parente, S.T. (2014, May). Procedures take less time at ambulatory surgery centers, keeping costs down and ability to meet demand up. Health Affairs. 33(5), 764-769.  Click here for access to the publisher’s website: http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/33/5/764.abstract   Posted by AHA Resource Center (312) 422-2003, rc@aha.org



Inpatient utilization forecasts: tertiary care up 12% by 2021

Between 2011 and 2021, inpatient discharges are expected to decrease by 3 percent overall, but tertiary care discharges are projected to increase by 12 percent, according to forecasts by Sg2 experts using their proprietary Impact of Change model.  As much as 40 percent of an academic medical center’s volume are “destination cases,” or patients who travel 100 miles or more for care.  AMCs can expect to see opportunities in: rare and complex procedures, patients who need the multi-disciplinary care, cases with unusual presentations, and in the development of hub-and-spokes networks with community hospitals.  Some of the highest forecasted growth opportunities by 2021 are in the area of endovascular revascularization for stroke (246%, yes, this is not a typo), craniotomy (29%), organ transplant (11%), and bone marrow transplant (10%).

Source: Peabody, J.  The future play for academic medical centers.  Sg2 Health Care Community, Sept. 12, 2011.  Full text click here [free registration required]: http://www.sg2.com/ExpertBlog.aspx    Posted by AHA Resource Center, (312) 422-2050, rc@aha.org