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Projected Growth of Accountable Care Organizations

According to a new Leavitt Partners report, the number of accountable care organizations had grown to 782 by December 2015, covering 23 million lives.

What does future growth of ACOs look like? To find out, Leavitt staff made projections based on 4 different scenarios. In a baseline scenario that seemed most likely under current conditions, ACO coverage would reach 105 million people by 2020, but under ideal conditions, that number could reach 176 million lives [over half the population] in the next five years.

There’s been strong government support, including incentives and penalties, for accountable care organizations, but the future growth of ACOs remains unclear. That’s because the concept is still fairly new, and early results from ACOs so far have been mixed.

Despite the wide variation in growth projections for the four scenarios presented, the number of ACO covered lives grows in the five years ahead under each scenario.

Source: Muhlestein D and others. Projected growth of accountable care organizations. Leavitt Partners, Dec. 2015. http://leavittpartners.com/2015/12/projected-growth-of-accountable-care-organizations/ [free registration required to view]

Posted by AHA Resource Center (312) 422-2050, rc@aha.org

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