National Health Expenditure Projections, 2012-2022

CMS has released its annual 10-year forecast of the nation’s health expenditures through 2022. Here are some highlights:

• Health spending will grow an average 5.8% annually from 2012-2022, one percentage point higher than projected GDP growth.
• Expenditures through 2013 are expected to be under 4% but rise to 6.1% in 2014; thereafter, a 6.2% annual growth rate is projected for 2015-2022.
• U.S. health expenditures are expected to reach 19.9% of GDP by 2022.

Projections are also made by payer, industry sector, and sponsor. Forecasts for the hospital sector include:

• Hospital spending is estimated to have grown by 4.9% in 2012, reaching $892.4 billion, compared to 4.3% growth in 2011.
• Growth in hospital expenditures is forecast at 4.7% in 2014, rising to 5.6% in 2015 and to 6.4% annually for 2016-2022.

The sluggish economic recovery, ongoing increases in cost-sharing for the privately insured, and low growth for Medicare and Medicaid are cited for the current slowdown in spending growth. However, improving economic conditions, the Affordable Care Act expansion, and the aging population are expected to drive up future growth rates for overall national health expenditures.

Sources:

Cuckler GA and others. National health expenditure projections, 2012-22: slow growth until coverage expands and economy improves. Health Affairs, vol 32, no. 20, Oct. 2013. http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/early/2013/09/13/hlthaff.2013.0721.full.pdf+html

Fleming C. US health spending growth projected to average 5.8 percent annually through 2022. Health Affairs blog, Sept. 18, 2013. http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2013/09/18/us-health-spending-growth-projected-to-average-5-8-percent-annually-through-2022/

National health expenditure projections 2012-2022: forecast summary. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Sept. 2013. http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/Downloads/Proj2012.pdf

Issue brief: slow health care spending growth expected to persist through 2013. American Hospital Association, Sept. 2013. http://www.aha.org/content/13/slow-hc-spending.pdf

Posted by AHA Resource Center, (312) 422-2050, rc@aha.org